Posts Tagged ‘Energy Information Administration’

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Shale gas and oil – -it is everywhere, or at least if feels that way. It is in Russia, and the US, China, Argentina, Venezuela, Brazil and Mexico. It is in Libya and Algeria, Pakistan and Indonesia. It is in Australia and South Africa, and, at the other end of the world, it is in Canada.

For some more good news, there is some in the UK too, and for the really good news, most of it is up north, so there will be no need to spoil the aesthetic qualities of southern England’s rolling hills with wind farms. Instead all we need to do is dig up the Yorkshire Dales, and other areas that Londoners hardly ever visit.

Here is some bad news. There are also deposits in the south – bring back wind farms.

In all, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reckons there are 26 trillion cubic feet of shale gas and 0.7 billion barrels of shale oil in the UK. So what does that mean? Well, the UK currently consumes around 3 trillion cubic feet of gas a year, so 26 trillion would last around ten years. Click here .

Actually, compared to some countries the UK is small fry. The EIA reckons that China has over 1,000 trillion cubic feet of shale gas – or a quadrillion, as they also call numbers with nine noughts. The countries that make up the top ten, in terms of reserves of shale gas – with the largest first – are: China, Argentina, Algeria, US, Canada, Mexico, Australia, South Africa, Russia and Brazil. As for shale oil, Russia has 75 billion barrels, followed by the US, China, Argentina, Libya, Venezuela, Mexico, Pakistan, Canada and Indonesia. You may have noticed there is a pretty good correlation with size of country – Venezuela, perhaps, is the exception.

All in all, analysts are talking about there being enough shale gas and oil to feed world demand for ten years. You may have noticed that the global economy slipped into recession just as oil started to approach $150 a barrel. The good news on the US economy went from a trickle to gushing torrent, just as the price of gas fell. The cost of energy matters, and may yet be the key to determining economic strength.

Stop: let’s repeat that STOP. The EIA says its estimates of shale oil and shale gas resources outside the US are highly uncertain and will remain so until they are extensively tested with production wells. As for the UK, the jury is out on how practical it is to access shale gas and oil deposits, and not everyone is all that keen on the idea of digging up Yorkshire, or fracking in a country as small as Britain. Some might choose to switch the r in the word ‘fracking’ to a u and then add the suffix awful.

We keep hearing about how shale is not a global warming gas. Well, maybe that is right, but as this article points out: “Gas fracking involves the release of significant amounts of methane into the atmosphere in the form of ‘fugitive emissions’ – an extremely powerful greenhouse gas (72 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide over 20 years).” See: Gas fracking will cause ‘irreversible’ damage, says Conservation Council of WA 

The clue may be in the name. On the south coast of England there are what the EIA calls Jurassic-age shale formations. We have all heard of the Jurassic-age and know it happened a long time ago. Less of us have heard of the Carboniferous age, which occurred from around 359.2 million years ago, to 299 million years ago. There are reserves of Carboniferous age shale gas in northern England. In other words, we are talking about reserves of shale gas and oil that have been sitting in the ground for a very long time. And in just ten years we are talking about digging up a big chunk of these reserves that have sat in the ground for hundreds of millions of years; that took hundreds of millions of years to form. Does that strike you as a good idea? How do you think future historians, from say 200 years in the future, will respond when they read about all this so-called “good news on shale gas” in 2013?

What we forget is that the Earth’s climate has changed over millions of years, and it changed as carbon dioxide was sucked out of the atmosphere and deposited in the ground. In just a few years we are reversing a process that took place over millions, maybe even a billion years.

Just to play devil’s advocate, here is question for you: what will shale gas exploration do for renewables? Will investment into shale gas and fracking crowd out investment in renewable energies?

Remember Moore’s Law. In its literal sense, this refers to computers doubling in speed every 18 months or so. But use Moore’s law as a metaphor for rapidly increasing technology and maybe it can be applied to renewables.

Where renewable technologies differ from other energy industries and yet are similar to the computer industry is that the generation gap between each stage in their development is quite small. It can take three decades to build a nuclear power plant, months to build wind farms, and just days to install solar panels.

The more we invest in renewables, the cheaper they get, and the progress rate in the efficiency of the technology can be very rapid.

Forward wind the clock 20 years, and assume that in 2013 the world moved away from carbon fuels and instead invested billions, even trillions, in renewables. Is it not possible that by 2033 our energy would be much cheaper than it is today?

James Martin, in his book ‘The Meaning of the 21st Century’, said: “The world’s reserves of oil, not counting the undiscovered ones, have a value of about 60 trillion US dollars… coal reserves have a similarly high value. If humanity set out to save energy and move to non-carbon forms of energy… much of this vast amount of energy would be abandoned. Both oil-rich countries and petroleum companies want to hang on to their potential wealth.”

Apologies if this sounds like a conspiracy theory, which is not something this column tends to support, but why don’t we hear as much hype about renewables as we do about shale gas, when, by the way, surveys show that most people do not think wind farms are aesthetically ugly at all.

For the EIS report, go to Shale oil and shale gas resources are globally abundant 

© Investment & Business News 2013