Posts Tagged ‘Disruptive technology’

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In their new book entitled iDisrupted by John Straw and Michael Baxter, the two co-authors claim that only 19 of the world’s 100 largest companies in 2012 will still be in that list in 2042. However, it says that even this bold claim may be understating how things will pan out.

Throughout history, new technologies have had a disruptive effect on businesses and the economy, proving fatal to some well-known companies. In the new book, iDisrupted, the authors claim that the rate of fatality is set to increase.

Of the top 100 global companies identified in 1912, 29 companies had experienced bankruptcy or similar; and 48 had disappeared by 1995. Eastman Kodak was one of just 19 companies that stayed in the list during these years, yet at the start of the 21st century, with the onset of digital cameras, home printing and photo sharing websites, it too fell victim to the rise of new technologies.

In iDisrupted, co-authors John Straw and Michael Baxter claim that many of the industries we currently see as strong, such as oil, car manufacturers, banks and energy companies, could also be heading for the corporate graveyard within the next few decades.  They say that only 19 of the world’s 100 largest companies in 2012 will be in that list in 2042. However, even this may be an understatement.

Straw states: “The big corporate success story of the 20 century related to oil companies, but  just because they flourished in the 20th century, this does not necessarily mean they will flourish in the 21st century.” The rise in electric cars, self-driving cars and advances in solar power and energy storage, will all play a part in the energy industry as we currently understand it

Baxter, aka The Money Spy adds: “In our book, we try to explain why it is that technology is set to change the world like it has never been changed before. This is exciting, but it is also scary. There will be winners and losers, and some of the world’s largest companies will be amongst the losers.”

iDisrupted is a book about disruptive technology, how it will affect business, jobs, the economy and even what it is to be human.

iDisrupted –  Disruptive technology: changing the human race forever – will be available in all good bookshops and online from November 2014 or visit www.idisrupted.com for more details.

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A new book entitled iDisrupted: Disruptive technology, changing the human race forever looks at how technology will change the economy, business and even the human race. One of the technologies it cites that will have a huge impact on the world is Virtual Reality. Despite it first appearing in the 1980s, we are now on the cusp of seeing Virtual Reality’s existence and use in our daily lives in a way that will change us forever.

Hype has been building about Virtual Reality since its conception, but with high prices, small screens, cumbersome technology, and initial disappointment in the technology, many individuals have had their doubts about its impact. However, a new book written by John Straw and Michael Baxter, iDisrupted claims that, thanks to recent evolution in this technology, we will soon be holding face-to-face meetings in Virtual Reality as well as viewing holiday destinations, carrying out online shopping, and watching movies, and of course playing video games.

Combine the improvements in video, sound and computer graphics  with other advances, such as Leap Motion, which enables users to control their computers by the wave of their hand, with technologies that can fool our brains into perceiving smell, touch and taste, and the original dream of Virtual Reality is set to become reality.

Co-author Baxter, aka The Money Spy, says: “In our view, there are three stages in the story of new technology and how it is received by the market. There is the hype phase, the sceptical phase (as we react to what appear to have been unrealistic promises of the previous phase), and then the transformational phase, as previous innovations converge, create wealth, and – in the case of the period we are set to enter – lead to an acceleration in innovation. We are poised to enter the greatest transformational phase ever.”

John Straw added: “With the massive changes in technology that are about to occur, iDisrupted is a book that seeks to open a debate on what is surely the most important topic of the age, but which is barely discussed. Technology threatens society, but could be hugely beneficial. It is time we laid down plans to ensure it affects us in a positive way.”

Now available to purchase via Amazon, iDisrupted is a book about disruptive technology, how it will affect business, jobs, the economy, and even what it is to be human.

For more information about iDisrupted visit www.idisrupted.com

It often seems that views on the economy fall into two camps. There are those who say we are doomed; that the Earth’s finite resources are just about all used up. You could say this is the Malthusian view of the world. Furthermore, they say, the growth we have enjoyed over the last 200 years or so was based on unsustainable credit – we borrowed from Mother Earth and from future generations by doing something called ‘burning fossil fuels’, and in the process built-up debt that can never be paid back.

Then there are the optimists – those who believe in technology. It is a shame the debate is often so polarised, because the truth is that both sides have legitimate points. In today’s piece, the focus is on technology, and something rather miraculous that is appearing in our midst, and which – by the way – is largely being ignored by economists, and those who like to debate economics.

The truth is that progress – if you want to call it progress – is accelerating. And it has been accelerating for several billion years at that. For the majority of time that life has existed on this planet it was simple, very simple, and indeed for much of the history of the world, life consisted of single celled organisms. Then half a billion years or so ago, the Cambrian revolution occurred and a blink in the eye – evolutionally speaking that is – things changed incredibly quickly.

From the evolution of dinosaurs, mammals, primates, bipedal primates and early humans, the pace of change just got quicker. And once Homo Sapiens discovered agriculture we saw another acceleration in change, and an acceleration again upon the invention of writing, and then again with the printing press and the industrial revolution.

In the 20th century too, we have witnessed it. It used to take decades for new technology to gain mass market acceptance, but now it can take a mere hand full of years.

With the Internet this process has accelerated again and now – thanks to digital technology – it is no longer true to say that technological progress is merely accelerating. Rather, it is accelerating at an accelerating rate.

Now McKinsey has highlighted what it sees as 12 disruptive technologies that it estimates will collectively have an economic impact in the year 2025 of between $15 and $25 trillion. Note that the report is talking about that one year: 2025. Presumably the impact of disruptive technologies will grow from there. Just bear in mind, by the way, that global GDP in 2012 was around $72 trillion. US GDP is around $15 trillion, so by 2025 these new technologies, based on McKinsey’s analysis, will have an impact on the world either equal to or greater than the entire GDP of the United States.

The technologies and their estimated economic impact in 2025 are:

Mobile Internet. Impact: between £3.7 and $10.8 trillion. McKinsey says it estimates: “10 to 20 per cent cost saving on the treatment of chronic diseases via the ability to remotely monitor health.”

Automation of knowledge work. Impact: 5.2 to $6.7 trillion. The report says: “Advances in additional labour productivity would be equal to the output of 110 to 140 million workers.”

Internet of things. This means billions of devices, such as sensors, some very small, and which are connected. Impact: $2.7 to $6.2 trillion.

Cloud computing. Impact: $1.7 to $6.2 trillion.

Advanced robotics. Impact: $1.7 to $4.5 trillion.

Autonomous or near autonomous vehicles. Impact: $0.2 to $1.9 trillion.

Next generation genomics. Impact: $0.7 to $1.6 trillion.

Energy storage. Impact: $0.1 to $0.6 trillion.

3D printing. Impact: $0.2 to $0.6 trillion.

Advanced materials (such as Graphene, carbon nanotubes and nanoparticles). Impact: $0.2 to $0.5 trillion.

Advanced oil and gas exploitation. Impact: $0.1 to $0.5 trillion.

Renewable electricity from wind and solar. Impact: $0.2 to $0.3 trillion.

Okay, McKinsey does not really know. Is it estimating or guessing? Its guesstimate for 3D printing seems on the low side, and why aren’t vertical farms in the top 12? But it’s an interesting list and one worth keeping a record of.

But what are the implications for the economy, for unemployment, distribution of income, education, and indeed for business and investors?

These disruptive technologies could have the effect of greatly increasing GDP, so why is there a preoccupation with austerity? Debt does not really matter if your percentage growth in income is greater than the interest on your debt. We should either be preparing for, or at least discussing these great changes?

The real point, however, is that the disruptive technologies in the pipeline are stunning and, for better or worse, they will change our way of life and drastically alter the economy very soon. This is exciting and also frightening. How often do you hear this topic discussed? We are simply ill prepared.

For the McKinsey report, see: Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy 

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