Prepare for bond crash, or prepare as markets move to risk

Posted: June 3, 2013 in Stock Markets
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QE is drawing to a close; that is reason to panic. QE is set to be ramped up; that is reason to panic. That is what some say who see any news as bad news, including news that is totally contradictory.

The US is back, and the economic crisis is drawing to a close. ‘Celebrate,’ say the optimists. QE is coming to an end, ‘Celebrate,’ they say. ‘QE is set to accelerate, ‘Celebrate,’ they say. The pessimists pretty much say the opposite.

That is the nature of the markets. The news contradicts itself, the markets fall into their two camps whatever it says. They interpret everything as conforming to their pre-existing views.

Just to remind you, in the US, the Fed is dropping hints that its QE programme is drawing to a close.

In Japan, QE has been reignited, but this time in really big fashion. In the euro area, interest rates have been cut to half a per cent. In the UK, there is a feeling that once Mark Carney steps into Mervyn King’s shoes at the Bank of England, we will see a lot more QE.

So that is both more and less QE.

Bond prices have fallen. In the US the yield on US government ten year bonds has risen from 1.6 per cent at the beginning of May to 2.13 per cent by the last day of the month – that was a 14 month high, by the way.

The BIS, which is a lot like the world’s central bank, says this is a taste of things to come. In itslatest quarterly review it talked about the markets living under the spell of QE.

It says that the road will be bumpy as conditions return to normal.

But is that really a reason to fret? Over the last few years the economy has been in crisis mode and low bond yields have been a symptom of that. As we return to normal, surely bond yields will rise, and that is good.

Except, of course, who knows whether we are returning to normal, and indeed markets panic, even when times are good.

If the good times return, markets may well panic over bonds and we may yet see a crash. There is more reason to worry over emerging market bonds. So that’s ironic, impriving economy may be a reason for market turmoil.

But perhaps the fear is that bonds yields rise, even if conditions have not returned to normal. See:The Great Reset

© Investment & Business News 2013

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